Has Brexit been good for the UK?

A recent history…

Countdown to Brexit
(drawn from https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7960/)

• June 2016:
  Referendum. Vote in favor of leaving the European Union.
  
  
• March 2017:
  UK formally triggers Article 50 and begins the two-year countdown to the UK formally leaving the EU. Article 50 extended a couple of times.
  
  
• 31 January 2020:
  UK leaves the EU and enters a transition period
  
  
• 31 December 2020:
  Transition period ends. UK leaves the EU single market and customs union.

Then came Covid

• The last pre-Covid quarter was 2019Q4.
• Covid-19 appeared in 2020Q1.

How has Britain’s economy performed relative to others?

In terms of economic growth, not so great.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, UK’s GDP has fallen by 0.4%, while the US, the Euro area and major European economies have done better. The US economy has grown the fastest of all.

However, in terms of inflation, Britain has done better than most other countries.

Solomonic wisdom from India’s Supreme Court

In a recent judgement, the Supreme Court weighed arguments dealing with compensation for medical negligence. The case involved a minor who suffered “suffered from wrong diagnosis and wrong treatment, which led to rashes on her body, and which became beyond control.” Turns out that the doctor who treated the patient was an “Ayurveda doctor”, someone with a Bachelor of Ayurvedic Medicine and Surgery (BAMS) degree, and “was not competent to prescribe allopathic medicines, which amounts to medical negligence.”

The patient’s father filed a consumer complaint and was offered Rs. 1 lakh (plus interest) in compensation for “medical negligence.” Dissatisfied with the amount, the father appealed to the State Commission which dismissed the appeal and upheld the Rs. 1 lakh award. The father then appealed to the National Commission, which increased the amount to Rs. 10 lakhs. [Rs 1 lakh is about $1,200.]

This award was appealed before the Supreme Court. And on Sept 9, the Court ruled as follows:

“… [since] even today the complainant has not recovered completely and is under treatment, we are of the opinion that the amount of Rs. 1 lakh awarded by the District Forum is required to be enhanced … so as to do the substantial justice to the complainant. We are of the opinion that if the amount of compensation is enhanced to a total sum of Rs. 4 lakhs … the same shall meet the ends of justice.”

So there it is: The Court split the amount down (almost) the middle, awarding Rs. 4 lakh for the medical negligence.

Click to access 12115_2022_8_1502_38066_Judgement_09-Sep-2022.pdf

Reflections of The Land: Meditations on Environment & Industry

‘ “The Land” has always had a fraught history with the land. Cleveland strives to be a green city on a blue lake, moving away from its history with environmental disaster like the Cuyahoga River fire in 1969, a blaze accepted by residents as an inevitable side effect of industries that had brought prosperity to the region. Throughout the city’s history, there have always been questions of industry versus nature. Since the Cuyahoga River fire, Cleveland has been plagued with other environmental difficulties: increased air pollutants, decreased tree canopies, abandoned shells of industry, climate change inequity.’

This is how Aparna Paul begins an anthology of poems, stories and essays on Cleveland’s industrial development and environmental issues.

“Reflections of The Land: Meditations on Environment & Industry was created by Aparna Paul, a participant in the internship program at Literary Cleveland, as a part of our ongoing Amplify Voices series. This series was designed to empower, uplift, and celebrate communities by giving them the platform to tell their own stories on their own terms.” – Literary Cleveland

https://www.litcleveland.org/events-programs/reflections-of-the-land-anthology

Certifying the world’s first covid-19 vaccine

sciencemag.org

Old Russian saying: “The strictness of Russian laws is compensated by the fact that it’s not necessary to follow them.”

The adage might apply to the lax regulations under which “Sputnik V” received a registration certificate from the Ministry of Health after a mere 76 people were tested. The certificate states “that the vaccine cannot be used widely until 1 January 2021, presumably after larger clinical trials have been completed.”

A troubling question: Will the FDA be pressured by the Trump administration into approving a vaccine under emergency use authorization (which is similar to the Russian registration certificate)?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/russia-s-approval-covid-19-vaccine-less-meets-press-release

Pennsylvania County Scorecard Covid-19

Pennlive

The PA state govt is using 4 criteria to determine the color status:

1. Are confirmed case counts stable/decreasing/low for past 2 weeks compared to previous 2 weeks? (Any of 3 conditions must be met.)
2. Is contact tracing being done/implemented?
3. Is PCR positivity rate < 10% for last 2 weeks?
4. Is total ICU/Med surge beds <= 90%?

Lebanon County turned yellow on May 29 (did not meet #1). County Republicans call Gov. Wolf a loser and dictator (but not scumbag or lowlife, epithets that tend to show up in tweets from the White House.)
Lancaster will turn green on June 26.
Dauphin, Cumberland have turned green.

Source: https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/County-Dashboard.aspx

What are borders for?

The Boar are coming! The Boar are coming!

In the US, a wall on the southern border is meant to keep out migrants from central America. Across the English Channel, in France, a handful of refugees got onto boats and came to the UK, prompting calls for, what, the might of the British Navy to keep them out?

And now comes news of yet another incursion, this time on the Denmark-Germany border. The Danes are not worried about migrants coming over from Germany, well at least not the two-legged variety. No, what is worrying them is the prospect of wild boar walking into Denmark and spreading African swine fever. A fence is in the works. (politico.eu)

370 economists sign a letter about Trump

WSJ

Tax cuts. Immigration. International trade.

According to the economists, Trump’s positions on these issues (and more) are false, misleading, and dangerous. Eight Nobel Laureates, including Oliver Hart (the 2016 winner), have signed off on the letter.

They don’t pull their punches:

Donald Trump is a dangerous, destructive choice for the country. He misinforms the electorate, degrades trust in public institutions with conspiracy theories, and promotes willful delusion over engagement with reality. If elected, he poses a unique danger to the functioning of democratic and economic institutions, and to the prosperity of the country.

Promoting Arab democracy: In America’s interest?

dan4kent.wordpress.com

Stephen Walt notes that a lack of “ideological solidarity” has not prevented the U.S. from forming alliances with conservative monarchies and authoritarian governments in the Middle East (“The Origins of Alliances,” 1987.)

In “The American approach to the Arab world,” John S. Badeau, a former ambassador to Egypt writes (emphasis added):

It would be impossible to conduct a foreign policy in which the fostering of democratic institutions and a free enterprise economy is rated equal in importance with strategic interests…. In fact no country in the Arab world either fits the American prescription for democracy and free enterprise or shows much likelihood of doing so in the next few decades. Rigorously applied, a policy of promoting democracy and free enterprise as basic interests would impede U.S. relations with all Arab states.

The book was published in 1968. How much have things changed in the last five decades? Will Arab democracy have to wait for another few decades?

How to interpret economic data

Source: C-Span

Jason Furman, chairman of CEA, provides useful ways to interpret economic statistics. Some points:

Use moving averages to smooth out fluctuations and obtain a better view of changes in the economy. (Use 4-week average for unemployment insurance claims, which is released every week.)

Use different measures of the same item. Along with GDP, look at gross domestic income (GDI). In 2015 Q1, GDP fell 0.2 percent, while GDI rose 1.9 percent. Better to use some sort of average of the two.

When comparing wages (and other variables) over time, use real wages, not nominal wages.

http://www.c-span.org/video/?327330-1/white-house-economist-jason-furman-economy

Health insurance coverage: Healthier numbers in 2014

How many people in the U.S. did not have health insurance in 2014?

36 million, or 11.5% of the population.

The latest report from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics also shows that the number of people without insurance has fallen from 15.4 percent to 11.5 percent in six years. The ACA went into effect in 2010, when the uninsurance rate stood at 16 percent.

Year	Percent uninsured
2009	15.4
2010	16.0
2011	15.1
2012	14.7
2013	14.4
2014	11.5

A separate report from Kaiser notes that “approximately 11 million nonelderly adults were newly insured in 2014, meaning they reported that they obtained health coverage in 2014 and were uninsured before that coverage started.”

The report also allays concerns about adverse selection–it is not just the old and sick who are seeking insurance: “[A]bout half of newly insured adults are under age 35 (similar to those who remained uninsured), and newly insured adults are actually less likely to report fair or poor health than those who remained uninsured.”