First Brexit, now Polexit?

July 15, 2021

Is Polexit a thing?

Poland joined EU in 2004. It is now finding it hard to stick to the membership rules of the club. The country’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has recently decried the “the lawless interference and aggression of the law coming from European bodies.” (AP News)

The brouhaha deals with the Polish government’s decision to set up a new chamber to punish judges and prosecutors for unfavorable rulings. The European Court of Justice has ruled that this mechanism is incompatible with EU law. Poland’s reaction suggests that the government is not inclined to accept the decision of EU’s top court, and in some quarters, is being seen as a prelude to an exit from the EU.

Leaving the EU will hurt. In 2018, Poland received € 16.4 billion (3.4% of GDP) from the EU, while contributing € 4 billion to the EU budget– a net receipt of € 12.4 billion. (Europa)

The government may bluster. But a voluntary Polexit is probably not in the cards.

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